The world population revisited

You've probably heard it said before that the world population is out of control. This is not a new story. It's been raging over the ages: in the 60’s; the 70’s; long before the advent of the wonderful technologies that have transformed food production and all the nice things we've come to embrace.

But what can we say about the world population today? The human population exceeded 7 billion people not that far back. Just how many people can the planet realistically support given our resource usage patterns and the waste that is generated (and our disposal habits of course - which cause all sorts of problems in the environment). Some authors (Richard Heinberg) have surmised that the optimum human population for Planet Earth given our resource usage patterns is around 2 billion people. Now we are a long way from that; currently going at more than 7 billion (and counting). So just how far can we go? Just how many more people can our planet accommodate before it reaches tipping point?

The case for dense settlements

I read an article recently from the Daily Maverick which claimed that the one place in the world with an extremely dense population (130, 000 people per square kilometre) is a suburb in Hong Kong called Mong Kok, where people are packed in high rise buildings as a matter of course. If we could translate that to sunny South Africa, this would amount to fitting the whole population of the country in the little town of Stellenbosch in the Western Cape. Or even better, fitting all the more than seven billion people in the world in the Province of Mpumalanga - with some extra space to boot. We’ve got more than enough space in South Africa. We just need to plan better to optimise settlements and the valuable space we have. Next time someone tells you there are too many people in South Africa, tell them they are just too lazy to think.

Technology to the rescue
In truth technology has alway come to our rescue over the ages, providing us with endless possibilities to make the cake bigger. That’s what the Industrial Revolution was about. Same thing with the Green Revolution. The doomsayers are pessimists who consistently view the cup as half empty. Their ilk has been around from the beginning of time. It’s the kind who brazenly declared that the skies are the territory of the birds and argued that if god had intended for human beings to fly, he would have given us wings! These are folks who are just lazy to use their brains. In truth there is always a way. The very things we haven't even begun to imagine are possible. The astronomical explosion of technologies in the mobile sphere is a case in point. In truth, the past few years have brought about such amazing technological innovations that few of us could have envisioned just a decade or so ago. It seems the choice we have is either to continue to innovate and find better ways for our species to continue to thrive, or give up and allow the doomsayers to win the day. There is a cliché that whoever says something is impossible normally finds themselves interrupted by someone doing the exact thing.

Natural resources are finite of course. Or at the least, they do not regenerate fast enough to match our consumption rates. But our minds are not. Water scarcities are predicted to cause havoc for the inhabitants of Planet Earth in the immediate future. At least those are the theories drummed up by pessimists. Of course water is a finite resource. But our thinking is not. And technology gives us options. The good thing is that we are aware and can create options. Which is pretty much what we should spend time doing. Of course it is not wise to waste a resource that is in limited supply. The challenge is in being more efficient in the use of such resources, which is where technology and education kick in.

The case of individual countries
South AFRICA is a medium-sized country with a medium-sized economy, which is struggling with challenges of unemployment (among disadvantaged darkies for the most part), and poor education standards (for darkies too – most of whom got the short end of the stick, owing to apartheid). So that puts us is a very compromising position compared to other countries in the global marketplace. We have a small, poorly equipped population. Those aren't favourable traits in a skills-driven economy. So how can we close the gap in the BRICs grouping? How can we make ourselves count? The world does not owe us anything. The party is over. We need to get our priorities right and make the most of what we have. We need to open up and give opportunities to the dreamers among us. We need to make a habit of embracing skilled foreigners. America became as big and dominant as it is today because of the contributions that skilled foreigners made in the economy. We would be dumb if we missed this glorious opportunity. No room for xenophobia in a globalised marketplace!

Immigrants everywhere!

So there you go folks. Let's build this country. Let us learn to embrace foreigners and make it easy for them to settle in Mzansi. We are too small and too insignificant on our own. We need all the help we can get. We are up against a billion Indians (we are just 5 per cent of the Indian population); we are a mere 25 per cent of the Russian population; a much smaller proportion to that of Brazil; and a measly 5% of the population of mighty China. Saddled with our inferior education and huge unemployment levels - where a big section of the population does not play any meaningful role in our economy - we are nowhere near giving these guys a serious run for their money. The Chinese and Indians are churning out almost two million engineers every year, compared to our paltry two thousand or so. We are short of manpower; call that human-power if you want to be gender-neutral.

So in our world, population matters. The dominant countries have sizable populations. A hundred million seems a fair bet according to The Economist. That’s pretty much the reason why all forecasts confirm that Nigeria is on track to overtake SA soon on the GDP front. So if you are one of those doomsayers who think small populations are a godsend and are advocating for control of birth rates and all that, think twice. Big populations may be a burden in cases where the children do not get a good start in life, but they do increase the probability of those kids taking up places in the economy. We just have to ensure that a good many of them get a good start in life. A whole bunch of us from the townships and villages who are scattered across South Africa today did not necessarily get the best start in life. But not even such a predicament as an unfortunate background can stand in the way of a solid determination to succeed.

The energy connection

Life is about energy. Energy powers our production systems. We wake up, exercise, and pretty much do everything (it's called work) because of energy. But what is energy? What exactly does energy do in our systems? In the same way as our motor vehicles need energy to move, we need energy to get on with life. Fairly simplistic, right?

And from the star it all began…

Energy comes from the sun of course. The sun will be around for a billion more years, so our immediate energy future is assured. Besides, none of us will be around for that long anyway. So it really doesn't matter that much, right? But it sure does. There’s the small little matter about how to access that energy.

An age-old yet relevant process

So energy is harvested from the sun by green plants (through photosynthesis of course - remember that?). The energy is either consumed directly from plants by human beings or other animals, and then converted to other forms of energy. Energy can't be created or destroyed (law of conservation of energy), so it's either used in the form it is in (from plants, animals, etc.), or transferred down the food chain. It's energy all the way. Whether it’s the burgers you buy from McDonald's, the oil or petrol from the pump, or whether it's the electricity (most of it derived from coal) from Eskom, it's all energy from the sun of course. Available in different forms. Wars are fought over access to energy. That's how central energy is to our lives. Kind of funny when you get to consider how things connect.

And up the chain it goes…

And yet because of energy, we are stuck with problems of pollution and climate change (emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are to blame – coal, oil, biomass, etc.). The so-called war on terror, which caused untold damage to the lives of poor people in Iraq, had everything to do with access to oil. The current wrangles over Iran’s nuclear ambitions are effectively over a poor nation’s rights to access a convenient form of energy (oil is going to run out soon).  We get companies dedicated to selling energy in one form or another. Some of the biggest companies in the world are in the oil and gas sector (Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, China National Petroleum Corporation, among others.). The big 4 oil and gas companies in SA make fortunes in selling oil and its derivatives. Farmers sell their hard-earned produce to established retailers who make most of the killing – and in the end screw the poor farmers of course. But it's all about energy. That's why it's so central to life. Without energy, life is not possible. It's as simple as that. So the whole point of life is about accessing energy and using it to power our systems. Our brains use up most of the energy in our bodies. If you cut off energy supply to the brain even for a short while, life grinds to a halt. 

Hopefully society will have a better appreciation of energy. Next time I'll write a piece about the amount of oil in the world and the whole peak-oil story. It’s a bit of a murky subject. You'll make up your mind what you think of that. It's one of the hottest topics of our generation. In much the same way as is climate change. Or any of the other sexy topics bandied about by the media.

Until the lion learns to write its story!

SIPs to the rescue!

Just the other day I had a quick read through the government’s Strategic Integrated Projects (SIP) and what's been happening in that space lately. I was astounded. This was not merely government spin-doctoring. Top of the list was the Waterberg Coal Corridor. Incidentally, I’d been invited during the past week to give a talk on the environmental overview of the Waterberg. Now the Waterberg has been identified as a strategic coal corridor in the country during last year’s State of the Nation Address. In case you haven’t heard this yet, the coal mines in Mpumalanga are running low and the Waterberg is being earmarked to supplement the declining production from Mpumalanga. And the Waterberg Coalfields contain tonnes of the black gold. And as it so happens, we depend on coal for our not-so-cheap electricity and things will remain that way for the longest time. As the Superfreakonomics gang elegantly argued in their book, generating electricity from coal is a no-brainer for poor countries!

There are a variety of Bus Rapid Transit projects at various stages of development in the country to improve public transportation - yet another SIP project. Water supply in Bushbuckridge Local Municipality (as well as other impoverished and neglected areas in the country) is being revamped - yet another SIP.  The Durban Corridor is another strategic project geared to moving freight from the roads to rail to reduce traffic congestions. This indeed is the most important corridor in South Africa. Renewable energy projects are being promoted in line with the Integrated Resource Plan 2010 – whose overriding objective is to ensure energy security in the country and to diversify our energy mix to include more green options. In a world with a green hangover, that surely is a worthy objective!

A flicker of light

Reading though the news on the government website (which I hardly ever do I must confess - http://www.info.gov.za/issues/national-infrastructure-plan/), it occurred to me that there is much out there that we don’t bother about (and simply depend on the media for our daily dose of negative news). Now here is a case of government telling its own story. I was inspired enough to download and read the Integrated Development Plan (IDP) for Bushbuckridge Local Municipality - one of the presidential poverty nodes during Thabo Mbeki’s tenure. Much to my astonishment, millions of Rands are being spent on improving infrastructure and addressing basic needs in the area. I read through pages detailing projects being implemented and millions of Rands being spent in the process. Understandably, some of that money may leak out through the pervasive black hole of corruption. But granted, some of the money will be well spent and will definitely make a tangible difference in the lives of poor people. These projects, by the way, also fall within the ambit of the SIPs being implemented countrywide. There is apparently 93% electrification in the municipality, even though most of that is used only for lighting purposes; roads are being tarred; and there are generally signs of progress everywhere. This of course is far from the mainstream and chances are the media is busy digging for sensational stories elsewhere to take notice of developments in sleepy Bushbuckridge. It occurred to me that someone ought to tell this story.

As some of you may be aware, there is a brilliant plan for the future of South Africa developed by Manuel and his crew. Informed by the famed (or much maligned in the case of Cosatu) National Development Plan, most of the SIP projects are already quietly making a difference in people’s livelihoods in various parts of the country – some away from the media glare.

Ask not what your country can do for you!

As it stands, the NDP is about citizens lending a hand in building a future South Africa we can all be proud of. Often all that is required is ideas about how things could be improved. In the green energy space, all South Africans are encouraged to participate in energy generation using renewable energy sources (solar, biomass, wind, etc.). The limit is our imagination. The door is not shut to South Africans like myself. Instead of wasting time complaining endlessly and spewing vitriol in talk radio stations about corruption and all that (so I can feel good listening to myself), I'll spend my time wisely and get involved in projects of whatever sort in the country. That would surely be time well spent. So off to do my bit to build a better South Africa! 

To toll or not to toll?

So the good people of Gauteng are up in arms against e-tolls. They put forward a whole bunch of convincing arguments against tolling: We already pay for the roads we drive on; we pay some of the highest taxes in the world; the whole system has been designed to benefit the companies that will operate the tolls; our public transport system is not up to scratch – the government must sort out public transport first, and only later on look at expensive options such as tolling - etc. etc.  Fair arguments all these are.

The argument for tolling!

To play devil’s advocate, let us for a minute look at the merits of tolling. A theory goes that the only effective solution to tackling traffic congestions is if people are charged for driving. You see, drivers hardly ever consider the negative externality that their driving creates for other drivers. If municipalities simply build new roads to tackle traffic congestions, cars will emerge to take up the extra space available. Even though there might be extra space available in the beginning, over time the new lanes get clogged up. So building additional roads is hardly the solution. It makes sense when you get to think about it.

Now you may well ask, what is the situation internationally? It turns out we are fairly young in the big scheme of things in the world. We are latter-day comers. Cities the world over have wrestled with problems of traffic congestions long before we boarded our gravy train. New York City is a case in point. Paris in France. And London too. Beautiful cities all of them. But the common thread is that they charge for driving on roads in the city. Whether it’s through variable charging where toll rates are cheaper during off-peak times and more expensive during peak times, or whether it’s through charging a flat rate throughout the day, tolls have been shown to be effective in discouraging driving. We would do well to learn from other cities that have faced this problem before. Reinventing the wheel would sure be a backward thing to do.

Government should make it expensive for people to drive, and cheaper to hop on a bus, or a taxi, or whatever reasonable public transport options that are in place.  Or better still, government should look to give people an incentive not to drive. If it’s much cheaper and more convenient to catch a cab or a coach into town, who in their right minds would insist on driving their petrol-guzzling SUVs into town (and get stuck in traffic while at it)? The only challenge is in making sure that feasible and reasonable alternatives exist, which is perhaps where we should be channelling our energies.

The true cost of traffic

How many skilled people waste hours every day commuting to work?  For those doing daily commutes between suburbs and offices wasting an average of 1:30 minutes every day, that alone could amount to millions of Rands in wasted time. If you factor in the running costs of the vehicles and wear and tear, you’re already looking at hundreds of millions. Bear in mind we haven’t factored the costs of accidents and emotional strain. If you count all those things in, the true costs could easily escape to billions. This for a medium-income country saddled with challenges of meeting basic needs for the vast majority of its citizens.

So where to for GP?

Now that the Prez has effectively given tolling the green light, there is no two ways about it. Get yourself an e-tag and get ready for the future. I’m yet to hear of anyone who enjoys paying taxes, but we all pay taxes all the same. Same thing with tolls. I’d rather we fight for fairer pricing of the tolls. Or support modern public transport options such as BRT systems. But I pray, not fight against tolling. This may well be the only solution to our dreaded traffic nightmare. And that sure is a drain on our economy.